Thread: Corona Virus

Originally Posted by Tote

I would expect that given previous experience and a 2 week incubation period NSW will continue to have low numbers of new infections for the next couple of weeks at least.

Regards,
Tote

Fingers crossed!

Originally Posted by Slunnie

I think NSW was the only international entry point?

Not the only one , but NSW takes the most travellers returning, a point often made by the federal and State governments, but the rest of the States were restricted by their capacity to accept more people. VIC. was the second highest receiver of travellers until the second wave, and shut down, which placed more pressure on NSW.

Originally Posted by Arapiles

There's been genuine concern about NSW's "whack a mole" approach for a while: every other State had eliminated the virus, even Victoria, but NSW is acting as a reservoir that has the potential to reinfect other States - which is what happened this time.

Thank you, that's exactly how I feel. Nothing to do with the blame game, but everything to do with keeping Aussies safe.

Originally Posted by Tote

The Victorian approach also worked but at huge social and financial cost shutting down a state for six weeks.

The reason Victoria did it the way it did previously was it was playing "whack a mole" where the moles were invisible and the 3 part time contact tracers were blindfolded with one hand and both legs tied behind their backs. By the time they got it into gear, things were so far out of control a full lockdown was the only way to get on top of it quickly. Other states still haven't paid any more than lip service to the Victorian lessons learned.

NSW was still the gold standard for contact tracing, but suffers from the same problem faced everywhere except Victoria "Can't fix stupid and it won't affect me". Victoria knows better, so even the stupid have a crack at playing by the rules because they know it *will* affect them. Once burned and all that.

Don't even get me started on the West......

Originally Posted by Arapiles

There's been genuine concern about NSW's "whack a mole" approach for a while: every other State had eliminated the virus, even Victoria, but NSW is acting as a reservoir that has the potential to reinfect other States - which is what happened this time.

Whoa, hang on, it was 'eliminated' in NSW too, but somehow got out of quarantine.

The Avalon outbreak has been genomically traced to a US strain in early December, so definitely hasn't been quietly circulating.

As we saw with the woman walking out of quarantine in WA, and the couple that flew into Melbourne yesterday who ran and took off back to Goulburn, we're deeling with unpredictable humans

Originally Posted by rick130

Whoa, hang on, it was 'eliminated' in NSW too, but somehow got out of quarantine.

The Avalon outbreak has been genomically traced to a US strain in early December, so definitely hasn't been quietly circulating.

As we saw with the woman walking out of quarantine in WA, and the couple that flew into Melbourne yesterday who ran and took off back to Goulburn, we're deeling with unpredictable humans

Not quite.
No clear chain has been drawn between international travellers or airline crew members and the northern beaches cluster.



Northern beaches COVID: How a coronavirus outbreak stormed Sydney's northern beaches (smh.com.au)

Originally Posted by bob10

Not quite.
No clear chain has been drawn between international travellers or airline crew members and the northern beaches cluster.



Northern beaches COVID: How a coronavirus outbreak stormed Sydney's northern beaches (smh.com.au)

Bob, there are multiple reports quoting the CMO that it matches a strain in early December in quarantine, they just can't physically link it to Avalon which is the frustrating part for the tracers.

Originally Posted by rick130

Bob, there are multiple reports quoting the CMO that it matches a strain in early December in quarantine, they just can't physically link it to Avalon which is the frustrating part for the tracers.

Which would suggest that it was (and maybe is) circulating in the general populace.